Utilitarian Collective Choice and Voting

In his seminal Social Choice and Individual Values, Kenneth Arrow stated that his theory applies to voting. Many voting theorists have been convinced that, on account of Arrow’s theorem, all voting methods must be seriously flawed. Arrow’s theory is strictly ordinal, the cardinal aggregation of preferences being explicitly rejected. In this paper I point out that all voting methods are cardinal and therefore outside the reach of Arrow’s result. Parallel to Arrow’s ordinal approach, there evolved a consistent cardinal theory of collective choice. This theory, most prominently associated with the work of Harsanyi, continued the older utilitarian tradition in a more formal style. The purpose of this paper is to show that various derivations of utilitarian SWFs can also be used to derive utilitarian voting (UV). By this I mean a voting rule that allows the voter to score each alternative in accordance with a given scale. UV-k indicates a scale with k distinct values. The general theory leaves k to be determined on pragmatic grounds. A (1,0) scale gives approval voting. I prefer the scale (1,0,-1) and refer to the resulting voting rule as evaluative voting. A conclusion of the paper is that the defects of conventional voting methods result not from Arrow’s theorem, but rather from restrictions imposed on voters’ expression of their preferences. The analysis is extended to strategic voting, utilizing a novel set of assumptions regarding voter behavior

Voting and the Cardinal Aggregation of Judgments

The paper elaborates the idea that voting is an instance of the aggregation of judgments, this being a more general concept than the aggregation of preferences. To aggregate judgments one must first measure them. I show that such aggregation has been unproblematic whenever it has been based on an independent and unrestricted scale. The scales analyzed in voting theory are either context dependent or subject to unreasonable restrictions. This is the real source of the diverse 'paradoxes of voting' that would better be termed 'voting pathologies'. The theory leads me to advocate what I term evaluative voting. It can also be called utilitarian voting as it is based on having voters express their cardinal preferences. The alternative that maximizes the sum wins. This proposal operationalizes, in an election context, the abstract cardinal theories of collective choice due to Fleming and Harsanyi. On pragmatic grounds, I argue for a three valued scale for general elections

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Cardiac biomarkers for infarct diagnosis and early exclusion of acute coronary syndrome

The acute coronary syndrome (ACS) represents a diagnostic challenge: on the one hand patients need to be quickly identified to initiate treatment and on the other hand early exclusion of patients without ACS is important to relieve patient stress as well as overcrowded emergency departments. A growing number of biomarkers are becoming available to aid physicians with this task. This review gives an overview of the current research concerning early exclusion with an emphasis on the clinically most important biomarker: cardiac troponin

Airway complications after lung transplantation: risk factors, prevention and outcome

PURPOSE: Anastomotic complications following lung transplantation (LuTx) have been described in up to 15% of patients. Challenging to treat, they are associated with high morbidity and a mortality rate of 2-5%. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of complications in a consecutive series of bronchial anastomosis after LuTx at our center and to delineate the potential risk factors. METHODS: Between 1992 and 2007, 441 bronchial anastomoses were performed in 235 patients. Indications for transplantation were cystic fibrosis (35.7%) emphysema (28.1%) pulmonary fibrosis (12.8%) and pulmonary hypertension (7.7%). There were 206 sequential bilateral and 28 single transplants including lobar engraftments in 20 cases. The donor bronchus was shortened to the plane of the lobar carina including the medial wall of the intermediate bronchus. Peribronchial tissue was left untouched. Anastomosis was carried out using a continuous absorbable running suture (PDS 4/0) at the membranous and interrupted sutures at the cartilaginous part. Six elective surveillance bronchoscopies were done monthly during the first half-year post-LuTx, with detailed assessment of the pre- and post-anastomotic airways. RESULTS: One-year survival since 2000 was 90.5%. In all 441 anastomoses performed, no significant dehiscence was observed. In one patient, a small fistula was detected and closed surgically on postoperative day five. Fungal membranes were found in 50% of the anastomoses at 1 month and in 14% at 6 months. Discrete narrowing of the anastomotic lumen without need for intervention was found in 4.9% of patients at 1 month and in 2.4% at 6 months. Age, cytomegalovirus status, induction therapy, immunosuppressive regimen, ischemic time, and ventilation time had no influence on bronchial healing. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically relevant bronchial anastomotic complications after LuTx can be avoided by use of a simple standardized surgical technique. Aggressive antibiotic and antifungal therapy might play an important supportive rol

The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!

We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong

Musicians as Researchers - Insight or Insanity?

In the current university context, many highly-proficient music performers enrol in higher education degrees by research. While at first glance those enrolled may seem to be moving from an area of expertise to an area of inexperience, in many cases the individual may in fact have already developed a range of research skills in the course of becoming highly proficient in their chosen field. Many expert musicians seek to further develop their craft through embarking on research degrees and/or seek inspiration through what they aim to discover. Research is a highly valued skill among many musicians pursuing fine music making. In this paper, we will investigate the motivations of musicians for enrolling in a higher degree by research, including the reasons why they choose research as a way of expanding their skills as performers, and the expected outcomes of their research studies